World 32: Top 5 players outlook

Here’s my take on the current top 5 & their nobling choices:

1 - ßelma of AZRA has 6 good sized villages with a decent spread.  Interesting choice of N-S spread but almost no E-W spread, but sometimes that’s how the villages fall.  He doesn’t have tons of other 3K+ villages nearby, though there are two close enough to take.  One of those 3K players just nobled a barbarian and has 0 ODA … so that’s who I’d expect to see get nobled next  He has managed to keep his ODA fairly low and evenly growing, the latter being far more important than the former.  Between that and his low ODD (and that he continues to take villages), I’d say he has managed to keep his offense mostly intact.  The AZRA -> Sexy -> AZRA tribe changes are interesting as well.  I think he’ll continue to expand well with some, but not too many AZRA players nearby (and who knows what tribe he’ll stay in )

2 - crimson.angel of Hate. was a bit of latecomer to the nobling party, but made up for it with one large conquest after another.  He has a really nice spread of villages as well, though he might want a few more in the middle sometime in the near future.  He ought to be seriously raking in the farming income inside his triangular village area, unless his tribemates are more active than their point totals would indicate.  Given the huge concentration of Hate. in K44, he actually has a surprising number of decent targets left in K44 and he is right on the K54 border.  I think he’ll also continue to expand well, though will have a bit of a pause after his recent nobling splurge (4 villages in 3 days).  He’ll probably fall out of the top 5, but be back.

3 - kilga9 of Hate. is even more spread out than crimson.angel & also has some decent growing space in the Hate. sea of red.  While the first conquest was an abandon, all the others are quality and have been grown, not just collected.  kilga also just rimmed Shing09 with tribalism taking the other village at roughly the same time.  Shing09 might not be a player on anyone’s radar, but the important thing is that his rimming avenges one of Hate’s most significant losses: Shing09 rimming Minun.  With all the potential support nearby & the growing space I expect to see kilga remain in the top 10.  There might be a slight drop, because it looks like kilga had a 36K ODA uptake the day Shing09 was nobled … so could be some significant losses taking that village.

4 - Assire of AZRA (and a bunch of others in the past) started nobling a bit later & has managed to keep going at a fairly consistent pace as well as growing his villages.  His ODA rank (87) is quite low and he doesn’t have any huge single day jumps in ODA, so he  should have tons of troops in his main O – it’s not like he’s been nobling abandons.  He has a number of 3-4K villages nearby and some tribe present without overwhelming numbers, so I think he’ll expand better than the Hate. players over the next month.  I see him passing crimson.angel and kilga9, at least for awhile.

5 - adelyde of WR has already had a loss, but quickly renobled that village from the sniper.  Interestingly, adelyde joined WR (the sniper’s tribe) a mere 3 hours after retaking his village.  A bit of pressure applied there eh?  I’d be curious to know the full story.  Also very intrigueing is that adelyde is very close to the #1 ranked player ßelma.  Both players have a few tribemates nearby, so if fighting broke out it would probably not be mono e mono, but I’d still be intrigued to see the results.  As to who would win?  Given adelyde lost a village and joined the tribe that overnobled him, I’d be betting on ßelma and AZRA.

World 32: First noble Prediction

 

oP)DeLiRiuM has the first two nobles & tons of options to choose from at mid to slightly long range.  He has a bunch of Hate. members nearby, so whichever order they choose to go in, I’m pretty sure that Hate. will try to noble all of these targets fairly soon.  The question is: In what order?  Consider this map (filtered to 1K+, Hate tribe members in red, everyone else of importance colored in legend):

oP)DeLiRiuM noble prediction

Sloogiggan is the best target by far pointwise & with 6K ODA, he can’t be pure defense – either mixed or primarly offense.  He also is far enough away to give oP a slightly shifted center of farming – good for 2nd O village if that’s the way the player likes to go.  I am not sure that TTK is that good, so despite him being the highest ranked target, he might not be the best player among the targets either.  This makes him a very attractive first noble target from a number of different perspectives & in oP’s position (or my current knowledge of it anyway), the one I would target first.  I’ll go ahead and make that my prediction, but there are a great number of other possibilities.  

The next highest point target is GhettoGirl07 from Sexy!.  From ODA this player also looks be either primarily offense or mixed, so shouldn’t be too bad to clear, but starting something with Sexy! might not be Hate’s plan with all the other action going on in K44 .. early nobles don’t ALWAYS cause full tribe wars (but sometimes they have been known too )

hellfire77 of iP and IcyTundra of Hungry are just over 1K and far less attractive options IMO, but it is possible that Hate. will want to start actually nobling out iP since they are at war … kind of.  However, if you look at hellfire77′s ODD rank of ? you will see he has never been attacked.  Same with oP)DeLiRiuM … so perhaps they are not really getting into this Hate. vs iP thing

Most of those players come from good tribes as well, so I would not be suprised to see oP co-train one or two of them with his tribemate redman0777 to reduce the risk of backtiming a partial train (he’s almst to academy).  It’s also entirely possible that oP)DeLiRiuM will take one of the 1K villages (any other on map that isn’t colored) from a less well known tribe to get a safe first noble and then build up a train.  But that would be boring

World 32: Farm Report #3

So here’s the deal with farm level: the point increases are the same as resources & warehouse.  Even with the time based constraints, it’s very difficult to tell whether someone built resources or farm or warehouse.  Now most good players will have farm level > resource level around this stage of the game, though speed 2 means that you could possibly have resources a bit above farm.  Anyway, I expect the accuracy of this to be a lot lower than the smithy report because of that.  In fact, I know some of these are wrong based on feedback, but I’m not going to tell you who is a resource point whore – they might get targetted

As of 14 ST on the 31st:

• Farm level 27: Sailorboy,pacman17091978
• Farm level 26: CFox,kilga9,xgoh4nx,Guasave,egidijus555,kirbyi,Beautiful-Storm
• Farm level 25: bloddy7killer,adelyde,Magniffico,KaTiL TüRk,wolverdim,adrianlzy,crimson.angel,matto1,iNfiNiteDespaiR,maxrika,Chopa,Mithranldir,winter111004,ALEKSANDER 

World 32: Smithy Report #3

Top Academy rushers as of 14 ST on the 31st:

• Academy 2: oP)DeLiRiuM
• Academy 1: None
• Smithy level 20: eolver,redman0777,HAYALi**
• Smithy level 19: jailee08,CFox,Cpt. Marryat,kilga9,yakuit,Jeckyl N Hyde,kavaliauskas23,Saatn,SongbirdTB
• Smithy level 18: pedrinho20,matto1,Chopa,Harlos,isawatsuke,ßelma,Overvoltage,neo0606,Ace II,ruilin1994,pacman17091978,Beautiful-Storm

There are two nobles right now & both must belong to oP)DeLiRiuM based on Academy levels.  He actually has a few decent targets, so next I’ll analyze which of them he is likely to noble first.

World 32: Smithy Report #2

The list looks fairly similar & appears that we’ll have two academies fairly shortly.   Neither of our leaders has a village over 1K near them yet, but that could change.  At least one of them will probably wait for multiple nobles as well …

• Smithy level 19: jailee08,oP)DeLiRiuM
• Smithy level 18: CFox,Jeckyl N Hyde,redman0777,HAYALi**,SongbirdTB
• Smithy level 17: Mong2,eolver,Cpt. Marryat,ßelma,yakuit,pedrinho20,kavaliauskas23,pacman17091978,Saatn,Morpheon

World 32: Farm Report #2

I’ve done some checks by hand & had some feedback on the farm calculator to improve its accuracy.  It now takes into account build time & looks for successive increases rather than a single largest point increase (basically the same as the smithy algorithm).  It’s still hard to be precise for world 32 though, as the 2x world speed modifier makes everything much faster to build & thus harder to restrict by required build time.

Here’s the new set of predictions that should be more accurate, but nothing is perfect:

• Farm 26: Sailorboy
• Farm 25: CFox,iNfiNiteDespaiR,xgoh4nx,Guasave,Lord Kaldar,pacman17091978,Morpheon
• Farm 24: ornyto,wolverdim,Dariys Long,Mong2,fox128,bod666,eyeballman,winter111004,ALEKSANDER UA,The Prince Of Love,Astronomy,ßelma,meanmaru,Elimin@t0r,BrandonMarshall,kilga9,Minun,Sseba1978,WhipLasher12,xarros,Obuolys,LiveFreeOrDie,barabas22,Sikucc,Mayel,maaslander,memed,egidijus555,x-ptzonping-x,kirbyi,Soggum,Riizz,oxxn,ayben,bKrD,crimson.angel,3dian1415927,Beautiful-Storm,Saatn,gutterhog

World 32: Smithy Report #1

I probably should have done one of these earlier, but here's my smithy run algorithm's take on current smithy levels:
Smithy 18: jailee08,oP)DeLiRiuM,Jeckyl N Hyde
Smithy 17: redman0777,HAYALi**,pacman17091978
Smithy 16: Dariys Long,CFox,Mong2,Chopa,eolver,onya,Cpt. Marryat,ßelma,dodokikikaka,Martin The Filcok,kilga9,Sseba1978,ornyto,yakuit,Ace II,captainmod,Riizz,kkk69,kavaliauskas23,joehor,crimson.angel,Sloogigan,Beautiful-Storm,Saatn,SongbirdTB,Morpheon

World 32: Farm report!

Here are our farm level leaders so far in 32 (approximations – mileage may vary!)

• Level 26: orynto
• Level 25: Sailorboy, kirbyi,Soggum,Lord Kaldar, pacman1709178
• Level 24: Too many to report

Some may be surprised that only one Hate. member is on the list, but fighting an early war can have that affect  And there were a number at 24 and 23 anyway.

Gratz to ornyto for being the #1 pointwhore and #1 troopwhore

World 33: Semi-active vet day 3

Our fearless, but definitely not sleepless player has seen fit to add a 10 point increase to his village, bringing it to 121 points.  This is likely to be a market, but could also be a wall 1+2 (highly unlikely, I should hope).  Timber 9 + Timber 10 also add up to 10 points, but that will take too long to build within the same hour at the currently possible HQ level.

He has finally started farming 12 hours ago (4ST on the 29th).  Given that he didn’t build smithy, I think it’s pretty safe to say that he built timber up earlier, not hq.  This would put him at 3 HQ, 1 barracks, 8 timber,6 clay, 6 iron, 4 warehouse, 1 farm, 1 hp and at least 10 spears, but more likely 15-20.  So far I am not very impressed at the initial building choices (but hardly horrible – just not great).   Hopefully he can turn that around now that he’s farming anyway.  Many other players near him have also started farming, so should be lots of competition though.

World 32: Hate fuels k44 OD craze

While I’d usually recommend shying away from serious ODA/ODD in the days after BP, it’s a good way to track the K44 4-way.  Here’s the current ODA and ODD of the four tribes involved in the K44 hate fueled early game bruhaha.  Resurrecting the champs is H-O-T renamed btw & World Eaters is the full name of Hungry.

ODA Rank	Tribe	ODA Score
1	Hate.	110.606
4	iPleasure	46.434
6	World Eaters	40.399
33	Resurrecting the Champs	11.748

ODD Rank	Tribe	ODD Score
2	iPleasure	10.057
5	Resurrecting the Champs	7.370
8	World Eaters	6.235
12	Hate.	5.418

Because the fighting broke out immediately following the end of beginner protection and those are the dominant tribes in K44, we can assume that most of that ODA and almost all of the ODD comes from the wars, so it’s pretty easy to see who is winning.  Hate. has cleared more than twice as much as any other tribe & killed the fewest troops on defense (most likely sustaining the fewest losses).  The ODA scores indicate that Hate, iP and Hungry are fairly focused on building offensive & taking out the other tribes in K44 while H-O-T is clearly not.  H-O-T’s horrible ratio of ODA to ODD shows that they are not long for this K (no surprise) 

While the ODA/ODD scores show that Hate is definitely killing a lot more troops & taking less losses than Hungry or iP, it’s really hard to say more than they appear to be winning.  Checking every few hours may help – to see if the rate of ODA increases slows for the other tribes, indicating most of their offense is dead (but it could also mean they stopped attacking or the targets had no/few troops).

To get a better picture, it’d be necessary for me to get off my ass and rewrite battlefinder.  Then I could look at individual ODA and ODD increases correlated by location, to give a pretty good idea of who is clearing who.  I’ll get on that